If he does not catch the pass, he is debited at minus-0.75. What is also encouraging is the three components of RTM generally do not correlate with each other. So, uh, whats up with that? This approach not only accounts for dedicated double teams, but for coverage methods such as bracketing. Mike Band uses the Next Gen Stats Draft Model to spotlight six enticing individuals: three on offense and three on defense. NOTE: The two players ranked below who changed teams this offseason -- Bills WR Stefon Diggs and Cardinals WR DeAndre Hopkins -- are listed with the teams they played for last season, since these rankings are based on their performance in 2019. Perhaps its no surprise that in the ultimate team sport, assigning credit for something even as seemingly straightforward as separation is complicated. For example, if there is a cornerback covering a receiver and a safety deep above him who matches the receiver's pattern much more than any other receiver, that receiver is credited with extra attention. 32 lingering post-draft questions: Will Lions have regrets? 3. RTMs are a set of four metrics we've named Open Score, Catch Score and YAC Score, plus the overall combination of those three. 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018. Over the past two seasons, LeVeon Bell averaged more routes run per game (33.0) than all of A.J. PFFs Fantasy Strength of Schedule (SoS) metric provides a league-wide, season-long view of opponent matchups for each fantasy position. Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY . What does that mean? Essentially, based on routes run, Hopkins is almost playing an extra full quarter per game when compared to Jones. The values corresponding to each route represent league averages over the last two seasons. So while wed like more data, we should probably expect players who show the ability to separate above expectation on routes at these depths to continue to do so.7, Best and worst receiver seasons on intermediate passes as measured by separation over expected (SOE) per play, 2017-19. Johnson's target ratio is no joking matter. However, he finds himself atop this list because of his league-leading 396 receiving yards and five touchdowns on go routes, which came as a result of 13 receptions and a 4.6 percent catch rate above expectation on such routes. The other two weird names on the list are cut from different clothes than Jones or Blackmon. For qualifying wide receivers, the overall score correlates with yards per route 00 which I believe is the best conventional stat to measure receiver production -- at 0.76. With NFL+, stay connected throughout the rest of the NFL offseason with special content from Training Camp, Hall of Fame, and more! CROE is catch rate over expectation, which measures performance relative to completion probabilities. Note: A couple of wide receivers have more pass routes than their teams had pass plays. Latest on Los Angeles Rams wide receiver Tutu Atwell including news, stats, videos, highlights and more on ESPN For instance, short passes are, on average, associated with more separation than deeper passes because a defenders top priority is to avoid getting beat deep. A note: all yards per route run data collected from www.pff.com. The Vikings pulled off the biggest comeback in NFL history last week, but the Next Gen Stats analytics team says it wasn't the most improbable comeback of the season. However, he averaged only 6.3 yards target, leaving Johnson with a poor 1.56 yards per route run average. Metcalf ran a. Beasley also saw significant action against Philadelphia in week seven, when the Cowboys were without their top two running backs. But Thomass numbers are still eye-popping, and his peers in the NFL recently ranked him first among all wide receivers (and fifth overall) in the NFL 100. Regular-season passes of 5 air yards or shorter, minimum of 40 targets. Tied-65th. He finished in the top 20 in deep targets and red zone targets, but outside the top 30 in numerous stats; including an 18.8-percent target share (No. Which prospects selected in Rounds 2 and 3 project to be steals? Wide receivers make the bulk of their high-value receptions on passes at intermediate depths (between 5 and 15 . That's not bad for a strictly objective measure as something as mercurial as receiver performance. To put that in perspective, he is currently the only player in the Next Gen Stats era (since 2016) to average over 3.3 yards per route in a season (min. In fact, on an EPA-per-play basis, throwing short to Landry has a worse point expectation than running the ball. Interestingly, among the three target depths, SOE on intermediate passes appears to be the most stable year to year. Now, by itself, that doesn't make Targets per Route . However, hes also somewhat at a detriment for fantasy, in that he runs a low number of routes per game. For starters, we could look at the top 10 seasons since 2017 (when our data begins). Basically, Bell is playing almost a full quarter per game more than the next-closest running back. Danielr28 2 yr. ago. Hunter Renfrow caught 80.5% of the 128 targets thrown his way in 2021. 2. NFL footage NFL Productions LLC. Who is No. The WOPR and YPRR look a bit different than other sources. 300 routes run). For every route run, Open Score assesses the likelihood a receiver would be able to complete a catch, conditional on if he were targeted. Basic - Offense; Basic - Defense; Directional - Offense; Directional - Defense; By Team; Other. Of course, Blackmon missed the first four games of the season for violating the NFLs substance abuse policy, and then received an indefinite suspension for again being in violation of that policy after the Jaguars eighth game of the year. The Next Gen Stats analytics team uses its newly launched Expected Return Yards model to identify the top 10 returners of the 2022 regular season. REC. Chark and Kenny Stills at the top of the list the stretch X receivers whose job is to take the top off a defense. In other words, only 47.4% of a receivers Yards per Route Run is predictive of his YPRR in Year N+1. In total, the wideout model was trained on over 100,000 routes, while the backfield model was trained on over 15,000 routes. Last season there were 32 wide receivers to run at least 300 routes and draw a target on at least 20 percent of their routes. Do Not Sell My Personal Information. Stat Type. Well, now we have an answer to those questions and many more. In his second season as a pro -- and first in head coach Kliff Kingsbury's offense -- the Cardinals' Christian Kirk ranked as the most versatile route runner of the 2019 season. Among running backs, he ranks third in rushing fantasy points per game and first in receiving fantasy points per game. As were using air yards the vertical yards on a pass attempt relative to the line of scrimmage this bucket includes passes behind the line of scrimmage. It is highly recommended that you use the latest versions of a supported browser in order to receive an optimal viewing experience. Which view is correct? One thing to know is we exclude assessments of any nontargeted routes on a screen pass, because receivers typically are blocking rather than trying to get open. For wide receivers and tight ends, Open Score accounts for roughly half of the overall score, while Catch Score accounts for a little over a quarter and YAC Score accounts for the remainder. Since the most interesting routes to analyze are those that earned a target, there are two obvious points in a play to focus on: the moment the ball leaves the QBs hand and the moment the ball arrives at the receivers location. The Real Reason Presidential Candidates Form Exploratory Committees, Aug. 10, 2020, I believe this is because PFF includes passing plays called back due to offensive penalties in the number of, Worst Passer Ratings In Every Year Since the Merger, The Top Quarterbacks And The Receivers They Threw It To, Yards per Route Run, Yards per Target, and Targets per Route Run, The History of Black Quarterbacks in the NFL (2023 Update), Brock Purdy Looks To Make Quarterback Super Bowl History, Zach Wilson and The Worst Passer Rating In The NFL, The Eagles Rushing Offense Is Better Than Their Opponents Passing Offense, I suppose one counter to that would be that Stills was competing with. There arent too many surprises there, but it might be interesting to compare that list to the True Receiving Yards leader board. In his six games before that, though, Aiyuk was one of the most productive wide receivers in the league, generating 2.44 yards per route run and an 86.3 receiving grade. Number of WRs w/ at least one WR1 Season + > 250 routes run during rookie year w/ at least 20 targets, Number of WRs w/ at least one WR1 season w/ at least 20 targets during rookie year (no minimum route run threshold). Perhaps because of his success, Thomas has seen a steady increase in the number of targets at those depths. Since 2018, ESPN has introduced pass-rush, run-stop, pass-block and run-block player metrics. Tracking fifth-year options for 2020 first-rounders: Which were picked up, and which were declined? I did include sacks when calculating routes per team pass attempt, so that seems to be the only explanation. Fortunately for our analysis, Yards per Route Run can be broken down into two metrics: Yards per Target and Targets per Route Run. Look, there he is again! The following browsers are supported: Chrome, Edge (v80 and later), Firefox and Safari. window.PLAYERCARDS_CONFIG={affiliateCode:"fpros_cards"}; This FantasyPros staff member is an excellent contributor to our site who brings excellent analysis and content. 2022 Wide Receiver Stat Busts - Slot Performance . D'Onta Foreman thrived with the Panthers in 2022. But there again were confronted with confounders that make apportioning credit and blame difficult.2 For example, some QBs throw with more anticipation than others, releasing the ball before a receiver has made his break and created the separation necessary for a successful completion. Specifically, Atlanta ranks 11th-lowest in dropbacks per game over the past three seasons, while Houston, Pittsburgh, and the Giants all rank higher. Note that while NFL playbooks have hundreds of variations of routes, we've narrowed it down to these high-level categories, including 10 routes for those in typical wideout alignments and five for those aligned in the backfield: Wideout Routes (10): Screen, flat, slant, crossing, out, in, hitch, corner, post, go Backfield Routes (5): Screen, flat, angle, out, wheel. Yards per route run simply takes the total receiving yards a player accumulated in a given year and divides that by how many routes on passing plays he actually ran. To try to capture the results of this game of cat and mouse between receiver and defender, we used NFL Next Gen Stats data that measures the distance between a receiver and the nearest defender at key moments in each play. Routes run ranked higher than targets for running backs, and though they ranked lower than targets for wide receivers and tight ends, routes run still ranked highly overall. 1 in the latest NFL Football Power Index? Since the only difference between YPRR and Y/T is the metric targets per route run, its worth asking: is Targets Per Route Run a metric worth looking at? Michael Thomas (3). Passing Rushing Receiving Kicking Returns Defense. The type of play call matters, too. The intermediate SOE leaderboard includes seasons from receivers like Davante Adams, Keenan Allen, Danny Amendola, Cooper Kupp and Adam Humphries, all of whom are generally regarded as skilled route runners. Well, the word useful will mean different things to different people. With so many yards and an average YAC score, those yards must have been from deep or contested low-probability routes: How about Open Score? As for the other 16 receivers on the list? I suppose one counter to that would be that Stills was competing with Jimmy Graham, Marques Colston, and the Saints obsession with throwing passes to running backs, while Johnson was competing with, While there are some issues with survivorship bias here, Im not sure (1) how to get around them, and (2) that those concerns bias the results in a way thats more biased towards one of. One of the most widely recognized PFF signature stats, yards per route run takes into account the amount of snaps a receiver runs a route as an eligible receiver against the amount of receiving yards he gains for a . Having a high SOE in one season says very little about whether you will have a high SOE in the next.6 Short targets are also the only leaderboard where running backs make an appearance, owing to the dearth of targets they get deeper downfield. Find updated NFL wide receiver stats including season-long and weekly totals for receptions, targets, TDs, and more on LINEUPS.com Or write about sports? Brown streak across the field at FirstEnergy Stadium in Cleveland in Week 1 last season, I knew he was going to be a problem for defenses in this league. Now, by definition, if yards per target is less sticky than yards per route run, than targets per route run has to be the stickiest. For instance, DeAndre Hopkins played on over 90 percent of his teams snaps in every game he played last year. 1 year ago by Antonio Losada. $4.99/mo Join FO+. NFL and the NFL shield design are registered trademarks of the National Football League.The team names, logos and uniform designs are registered trademarks of the teams indicated. provides a great one-number summary of just how efficient a receiver is on a down-by-down basis. All rights reserved. Research past fantasy performance with sortable player stats including PFF-exclusives like aDOT and fantasy points per opportunity. The Vikings pulled off the biggest comeback in NFL history last week, but the Next Gen Stats analytics team says it wasn't the most improbable comeback of the season. We can study league-wide trends to gain a new understanding of offensive strategy and tendencies, and we can break down and rank individual players by advanced performance metrics. Not only is there a significant advantage to hitting the 2.00 yards per route run threshold in ones rookie year, but there is also a clear difference when that wide receiver ran at least 250 routes his rookie year. Yards per Target, of course, is very sensitive to outliers. While its unlikely well see Beasley see significant playing time in 2014, Im a little more interested in watching him now than I was before this post. Snap Counts; Pace / Time Stats; Drive Stats; Get More Statistics from FO + Exclusive Premium Content For Subscribers. Best and worst receiver seasons on short passes as measured by separation over expected (SOE) per play, 2017-19. Since depth of target is so important in determining separation, we grouped plays into buckets depending on whether a pass attempt was short, intermediate or deep and created an SOE leaderboard for each. We also needed to decide when to measure receiver separation. Other players appear able to consistently create separation on short targets Jarvis Landry is one example but the value of Landrys targets as measured by EPA are much lower than those directed at Thomas. Wide Receivers (14) These three components also are blended to create an overall receiving metric. In some ways, TPRR is like completion percentage. 2 and 3 on this list). Ricky Seals-Jones ran only 68 routes last year but drew 28 targets for 201 yards and three touchdowns on those routes. Thomas isnt in the same class as Adams and Allen when it comes to creating separation Adams has averaged over a half-yard of SOE the past two years on intermediates routes but despite the tighter windows, the expected value Thomas created on these targets ranks him among the best in the league on a per-play basis. Davante Adams, Packers (6-1, 215 pounds) Adams, 28, came back from an injury-curbed season to light it up as big-time scorer again in 2020 setting a career high . Which statistics and measurables are the most sticky? Which game is featured at the top of NGS's unlikeliest victory rankings? For more from John, check out his archive orfollow him@TheBauerClub. Two tight ends Evan Engram of the New York Giants and Zach Ertz of the Philadelphia Eagles top the list of receiver seasons with the highest separation over expected on short throws (5 air yards or less).5 Ertzs targets especially were high value. Here's the best-fit formula: N+1 TPRR = 0.062 + 0.671 * TPRR (R^2 = 0.41) The number of targets a player sees per route happens to be a very sticky metric. Previous post: Worst Passer Ratings In Every Year Since the Merger, Next post: The Top Quarterbacks And The Receivers They Threw It To. Ultimately, our separation model ending up including features that account for quarterback arm strength, the receivers separation at the time the QB targeted them, the horizontal and vertical position of the receiver on the field at the time of the throw, where the receiver lined up pre-snap, the distance to the goal line, the amount of break in the receivers route during the footballs journey through the air after it was released, the depth of the QBs drop, the number of other routes that were being run on the play, if the play was a play-action pass or a screen, and the number of deep safeties.3. We approached routes run by players aligned in the backfield separately from routes run by players aligned out wide, in the slot or tight, because of clear differences in route archetypes. Subscribe:iTunes|Google Play|Spotify|Stitcher|SoundCloud|TuneIn|RSS. Also, there are several other factors considered in establishing the benchmark on each route. How can a pass catcher win vs. press? AP Offensive Rookie of the Year: Ja'Marr Chase, AP Defensive Rookie of the Year: Micah Parsons, AP Offensive Player of the Year: Cooper Kupp, AP Defensive Player of the Year: T.J. Watt, Rushing Leader: Jonathan Taylor, 1811 Yds, Every Sports Reference Social Media Account, Site Last Updated: Monday, May 1, 2:31PM. But if he never plays again, he have caught 83 passes for 1,201 yards in his final 16 NFL games, split between his rookie and sophomore seasons. Robinson's 206 yards gained on corner routes led all receivers (minimum 75 total targets, regardless of route), and a lot of those yards were gained on catches he wasn't expected to make, per NGS. This site rocks the Classic Responsive Skin for Thesis. Only Terry McLaurin was as productive in the scoring department on post routes as Diggs (three TDs apiece), which is why the Washington receiver makes the top three in this group. Michael Thomas, the New Orleans wide receiver who led the NFL in receiving yards and set an NFL record for receptions in 20191 on the way to winning Offensive Player of the Year that Mike Thomas might not be an elite receiver?
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